Comments on England's England: More or less no global warming

Numerous studies find that at least 100% of the gl...

2012-01-19T12:56:25.578Z

Numerous studies find that at least 100% of the global warming of the last half century is anthropogenic (e.g. Meehl et al 2004, Lean & Rind 2008, Gillett et al 2012). Current rate of surface warming is 0.17°C per decade according to Foster & Rahmstorf 2011, 0.18°C per decade according to GISTEMP. BEST found land-only warming of 0.29°C per decade.

My point is that in a period as short as four years, natural variability on average is several times larger than the AGW trend, so the bet was a bit risky on Annan's part.

Source please for your conclusion that AGW contrib...

2012-01-18T06:39:38.161Z

Source please for your conclusion that AGW contributes to 0.2°C warming per decade.

The HadCRUT3v land surface temperatures data only shows a total (AGW plus natural cyclic warming) increase of a 0.1°C increase over the last 130 years.

Yet you are saying that we've seen a 26°C increase in temperature since 1880 from AGW alone. I assume were we to include natural cyclic warming, you are saying that temperatures have increased by over 100°C since 1880. Clearly they haven't.

James Annan was a little unwise to accept a bet fo...

2012-01-17T13:34:45.444Z

James Annan was a little unwise to accept a bet for such a short period but also a little unlucky as the latest solar minimum was, unexpectedly, the longest and deepest for about a century. AGW is proceeding unabated at around 0.2°C per decade but is of course masked in the short term by interannual variability of as much as several tenths of a degree.